Probabilistic Life Models for Steel Structures Subject to Creep- Fatigue Damage

When metal structures are subjected to long-term cyclic loading at high temperature, simultaneous creep and fatigue damage may occur. In this paper probabilistic life models, described by hold times in tension and total strain range at elevated temperature have been derived based on the creeprupture...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inInternational journal of prognostics and health management Vol. 6; no. 3
Main Authors Ibisoglu, Fatmagul, Modarres, Mohammad
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published The Prognostics and Health Management Society 03.11.2020
Subjects
bayesian regression
creep
creep-fatigue
expended life
high temperature steel structures
probabilistic model
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Summary:When metal structures are subjected to long-term cyclic loading at high temperature, simultaneous creep and fatigue damage may occur. In this paper probabilistic life models, described by hold times in tension and total strain range at elevated temperature have been derived based on the creeprupture behavior of 316FR austenitic stainless steel, which is one of the candidate structural materials for fast reactors and future Generation IV nuclear power plants operating at high temperatures. The parameters of the proposed creepfatigue model were estimated using a standard Bayesian regression approach. This approach has been performed using the WinBUGS software tool, which is an open source Bayesian analysis software tool that uses the Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling method. The results have shown a reasonable fit between the experimental data and the proposed probabilistic creep-fatigue life assessment models. The models are useful for predicting expended life of the critical structures in advanced high temperature reactors when performing structural health management.
ISSN:2153-2648
2153-2648
DOI:10.36001/ijphm.2015.v6i3.2286