Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosol and Greenhouse Gas Emissions on Northern Hemisphere Monsoon Precipitation: Mechanisms and Uncertainty

• Published in: Journal of climate Vol. 35; no. 8; pp. 2305 - 2326
• Main Authors: Monerie, Paul-Arthur, Wilcox, Laura J., Turner, Andrew G.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Boston American Meteorological Society 15.04.2022
• Subjects: Advection; Aerosols; African monsoon; Air pollution; Anomalies; Anthropogenic factors; Atmospheric circulation; Atmospheric circulation effects; Atmospheric models; Climate; Climate change; Climate models; Climate variability; Datasets; Domains; Drying; Emissions; Greenhouse gases; Moisture; Moisture effects; Monsoon effects; Monsoon precipitation; Monsoons; Natural gas; Northern Hemisphere; Precipitation; Precipitation anomalies; Precipitation trends; Radiation; Short wave radiation; Simulation; Solar cycle; Sulfur; Summer; Summer monsoon; Temperature; Trends; Uncertainty; Variability; Wind; Northern Hemisphere
• ISSN: 0894-8755; 1520-0442
• DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0412.1

Abstract Northern Hemisphere land monsoon (NHLM) precipitation exhibits multidecadal variability, decreasing over the second half of the twentieth century and increasing after the 1980s. We use a novel combination of CMIP6 simulations and several large ensembles to assess the relative roles of drivers of monsoon precipitation trends, analyzing the effects of anthropogenic aerosol (AA), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and natural forcing. We decomposed summer global monsoon precipitation anomalies into dynamic and thermodynamic terms to assess the drivers of precipitation trends. We show that the drying trends are likely to be mainly due to increased AA emissions, which cause shifts of the atmospheric circulation and a decrease in moisture advection. Increases in GHG emissions cause monsoon precipitation to increase due to strengthened moisture advection. The uncertainty in summer monsoon precipitation trends is explored using three initial-condition large ensembles. AA emissions have strong controls on monsoon precipitation trends, exceeding the effects of internal climate variability. However, uncertainties in the effects of external forcings on monsoon precipitation are high for specific periods and monsoon domains, resulting from differences in how models simulate shifts in atmospheric circulation. The effect of AA emissions is uncertain over the northern African monsoon domain due to differences among climate models in simulating the effects of AA emissions on net shortwave radiation over the North Atlantic Ocean.