Calibration Of Regional Vulnerability Functions By Applying Earthquake Events Database

• Published in: Geography, environment, sustainability Vol. 13; no. 4; pp. 54 - 64
• Main Authors: Frolova, Nina I., Larionov, Valery I., Bonnin, Jean, Sushchev, Sergey P., Ugarov, Alexander N.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Lomonosov Moscow State University 31.12.2020
• Subjects: calibration of mathematical models for vulnerability of buildings and structures; earthquakes; impact database; reliability of near real time loss estimates
• ISSN: 2071-9388; 2542-1565
• DOI: 10.24057/2071-9388-2020-97

The paper describes the structure and content of the Information System database containing information on earthquake events, which is developed and supported within the framework of computer support for the EMERCOM of the Russian Federation. The database is assigned to provide analytical support for decision making in case of an emergency situation, including tools for mathematical simulation of hazardous excitation, the response of elements at risk to excitation and loss generation. The calibration procedure of the earthquake vulnerability functions for buildings and structures using the database with descriptions of events is presented. The calibrated functions of earthquake vulnerability for buildings of different types are applied to provide an acceptable accuracy of situational assessments for the case of a strong earthquake. The examples of earthquake damage estimations for the test site in Siberia showed that region-specific parameters in the vulnerability functions yield more reliable results to estimate possible damage and losses due to a large earthquake. For Irkutsk City, the estimates of the numbers of heavily damaged and completely collapsed buildings obtained when using different sets of parameters for vulnerability functions differ by 30%. Such difference in damage estimates can significantly affect the plans for rescue and recovery operations. The conclusion is made about the advantage of the calibrated functions application for near real-time damage and loss assessment due to strong earthquakes in order to ensure population safety and territory sustainable development.