Assessment of the Situation on Anthrax Based on Ranking Territories by the Degree of Risk

• Published in: Problemy osobo opasnyh infekcij no. 4; pp. 125 - 132
• Main Authors: Raichich, S. R., Saburova, S. A., Shabeikin, A. A., Simonova, E. G.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Federal Government Health Institution, Russian Research Anti-Plague Institute “Microbe” 07.02.2021
• Subjects: anthrax; ranking of territories; risk factors; stationary hazardous as regards anthrax areas; surveillance
• ISSN: 0370-1069; 2658-719X
• DOI: 10.21055/0370-1069-2020-4-125-132

The aim of the study was to develop a unified approach to a comprehensive risk assessment of the anthrax situation deterioration based on the ranking of territories by epidemiologically significant factors. Materials and methods . For a comprehensive risk assessment of the situation complication, the statistical principles of ranking of the estimated indicators were used. These indicators comprise the presence and activity of soil foci of anthrax, the prevailing soil types and their main characteristics, as well as social risk factors associated with the peculiarities of animal husbandry and the possibility of infection of the population. The proposed assessment method has been tested on a national scale, and its content and results are described in this paper by the example of the Volga Federal District. The materials of the study were federal and regional cadastres of stationary hazardous as regards anthrax areas, an atlas and maps of soils, data of statistical accounting and reporting of Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance, Federal Service for State Registration, Cadastre and Cartography and Rospotrebnadzor. Results and discussion . It has been established that in all constituent entities of the district there are potential risks of the situation deterioration that are associated with the presence of soil foci. In terms of the sum of ranks, the greatest potential disadvantage is noted in a number of republics and regions of the Volga Region. At the same time, the real danger is mainly due to social factors, which include the characteristics of animal husbandry, as well as the degree of susceptibility of the population. The maximum risks are currently identified in the territories of the republics of Bashkortostan and Tatarstan, as well as in the Saratov Region. The study is aimed at improving the efficiency of anthrax epidemiological surveillance in the Russian Federation, and the proposed methodology can be used at all levels of surveillance.