Testing mechanistic explanations of observed correlations between environmental factors and marine fisheries

• Published in: Canadian journal of fisheries and aquatic sciences Vol. 58; no. 1; pp. 208 - 219
• Main Authors: Gargett, A E, Li, M, Brown, R
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Ottawa, Canada NRC Research Press 01.01.2001; National Research Council of Canada; Canadian Science Publishing NRC Research Press
• Subjects: Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Applied ecology; Atmosphere; Biological and medical sciences; Canada, British Columbia; Climate; Correlation analysis; Environmental factors; Exploitation and management of natural biological resources (hunting, fishing and exploited populations survey, etc.); Fish stocking; Fisheries; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; Marine; Marine ecosystems; Marine fish; Oncorhynchus keta; Oncorhynchus nerka; Pacific Ocean; Pisces; Predictions; Canada; Pacific Ocean; British Columbia; North America; America; North Pacific; INE, Canada, British Columbia; INE, North America, Juan de Fuca Strait; INE, Canada, British Columbia, Vancouver I; INE, USA, Washington; Salmonidae; Oncorhynchus nerka; Optimal stability window; Environmental factor; Mathematical method; Oncorhynchus keta; Forecast model; Coastal zone; Marine environment; Vertebrata; Fishery; Seasonal variation; Pisces; Mechanistic approach; Stock; Ocean atmosphere interaction
• ISSN: 0706-652X; 1205-7533
• DOI: 10.1139/f00-216

Based on observed correlations, marine fisheries are often hypothesized to depend on environmental factors. Since correlations are unreliable as a predictive tool, it is desirable to seek mechanistic explanations for observed correlations. This paper considers methods available for testing such mechanistic explanations. As a specific example, we consider the optimal stability window, proposed as a mechanistic explanation of observed correlations between the survival of North Pacific salmon stocks and the state of the atmosphere over the North Pacific in winter, as applied to the coastal waters and fisheries of southern British Columbia, Canada.