Projected changes in precipitation and temperature regimes and extremes over the Caribbean and Central America using a multiparameter ensemble of RegCM4

• Published in: International journal of climatology Vol. 41; no. 2; pp. 1328 - 1350
• Main Authors: Vichot‐Llano, Alejandro, Martinez‐Castro, Daniel, Bezanilla‐Morlot, Arnoldo, Centella‐Artola, Abel, Giorgi, Filippo
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Chichester, UK John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 01.02.2021; Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
• Subjects: Caribbean; Clouds; Cold days; Confidence intervals; ensembles; Extreme weather; extremes; indices; Oceans; Precipitation; Precipitation-temperature relationships; projections; Reduction; RegCM4; Regional climates; Regional development; Statistical analysis; Temperature; Temperature extremes; Wet days; Central America; Caribbean area
• ISSN: 0899-8418; 1097-0088
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.6811

Regional climate projections are developed four Central America and the Caribbean, based on a multiparameter ensemble formed by four configurations with different convective cumulus schemes with the regional model RegCM4 at 25 km grid spacing, driven by the HadGEM2‐ES global model under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The precipitation change projections indicate drier conditions compared to present in the near future (2020–2049) and far future (2070–2099) time slices. These drier conditions are statistically significant at the 90% confidence level over the eastern Caribbean, central Atlantic Ocean, and the western Pacific Ocean and are more pronounced in the far future time slice. For temperature, the warmer conditions are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level over the study region. The drier and warmer signals are greater in extension and magnitude in the RCP8.5 than for RCP4.5. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature extreme indices show a reduction of consecutive wet days and an increment of consecutive dry days, with a reduction of cold days and nights and an increase of warm days and nights. Lower precipitation along with increased intensity of extreme events are projected over the Greatest Antilles region. Extreme events of temperature and precipitation have negative impacts in human life. An investigation of the occurrence of these events in climate change conditions was carried out using a regional climate model at high horizontal resolution under a medium and higher scenario of climate change. Our findings confirm that events of intense precipitation will have less frequency but will be more intense over the region, while temperature will be warmer, being more critical at the end of the century.