Reliability Value of Distributed Solar+Storage Systems Amidst Rare Weather Events

• Published in: IEEE transactions on smart grid Vol. 10; no. 4; pp. 4476 - 4486
• Main Authors: Wang, Jianxiao, Qin, Junjie, Zhong, Haiwang, Rajagopal, Ram, Xia, Qing, Kang, Chongqing
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Piscataway IEEE 01.07.2019; The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE)
• Subjects: Batteries; Computer simulation; Distributed generation; distributed generation planning; Electric power supplies; Empirical analysis; Energy sources; Energy storage; Households; Investment; Load modeling; Meteorology; Power grids; Power system reliability; rare weather event; Reliability analysis; Reliability theory; reliability value; Residential energy; self-sufficiency; Storage systems; Weather
• ISSN: 1949-3053; 1949-3061
• DOI: 10.1109/TSG.2018.2861227

Distributed energy resources have been proposed as a promising solution to make households self-sufficient and increase power supply reliability. In this paper, we examine the reliability values of distributed solar+storage systems considering their possibility of survival during or rapid deployment after a rare weather event. To this end, we develop a theoretical basis and rule-of-thumb formulas for estimating the reliability value of a solar+storage system. The analytical results are used to calculate the optimal solar+storage capacities when reliability values are considered on top of the economic values and investment costs. Furthermore, to improve the accuracy of the proposed reliability value, we introduce a data-driven correction term based on realistic simulations using hourly electric load from 600 households in Austin, Texas, USA. Case studies demonstrate that 50% of households can achieve over 196.55 in annual reliability values by installing a solar+storage system with typical capacities. Combining our theoretical model with empirical data, we obtain an approach for fast yet accurate evaluation of the reliability value of solar+storage systems while avoiding the need for complex simulations. Therefore, our proposed theoretical analysis enables unsophisticated individual consumers to gauge the reliability benefits of distributed solar+storage systems amidst rare weather events when making an investment decision.