Direct estimation of life expectancy in the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2003

• Published in: Eastern Mediterranean health journal Vol. 15; no. 1; pp. 76 - 84
• Main Authors: Pourmalek, F, Abolhassani, F, Naghavi, M, Mohammad, K, Majdzadeh, R, Holakouie Naeini, K, Fotouhi, A
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Egypt 01.01.2009
• Subjects: Age Distribution; Aged; Analysis of Variance; Bias; Birth Rate - trends; Data Interpretation, Statistical; Demography; Developing Countries; Female; Forecasting; Humans; Iran - epidemiology; Life Expectancy - trends; Life Tables; Male; Models, Statistical; Monte Carlo Method; Mortality - trends; Population Surveillance - methods; Registries; Risk Factors; Sensitivity and Specificity; Socioeconomic Factors
• ISSN: 1020-3397; 1687-1634
• DOI: 10.26719/2009.15.1.76

We estimated the life expectancy for 2003 for 23 provinces in the Islamic Republic of Iran using population and mortality data from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. The underreporting of deaths above 4 years was corrected using the Brass Growth Balance method. We assumed that the distributions of population, deaths, and hence life expectancy in the 23 provinces were equal to those for all 28 provinces of the country. Thus we estimated life expectancy at birth to be 71.56 years for the total population [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 71.52-71.62]; 70.09 (95% UI: 70.02-70.16) years for males, and 73.17 (95% UI: 73.10-73.24) years for females. Our estimates were higher than the model-based estimates of the Statistical Centre of Iran, United Nations agencies and the World Bank, due to differences in the estimation methods used.