Short-range prediction of tropospheric ozone concentrations and exceedances for Baton Rouge, Louisiana

Previous research has been focused on improving forecasts of the daily maximum 1-h concentration of tropospheric ozone, which was based on criteria used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). However, in 2001, EPA began implementing standards based on daily maximum 8-h mean concentration...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inWeather and forecasting Vol. 18; no. 2; pp. 371 - 383
Main Authors ROHLI, Robert V, HSU, S. A, BLANCHARD, Brian W, FONTENOT, R. L
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Boston, MA American Meteorological Society 01.04.2003
Subjects
Atmosphere
Earth, ocean, space
Environmental protection
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Meteorology
Ozone
Principal components analysis
Regression analysis
Troposphere
Weather analysis and prediction
Louisiana
United States
North America
America
Baton Rouge Louisiana
United States > US
Short term
Weather forecast
Decision making
Troposphere
Ozone
Regression analysis
Concentration
Performance
Multiple regression
Principal component analysis
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Summary:Previous research has been focused on improving forecasts of the daily maximum 1-h concentration of tropospheric ozone, which was based on criteria used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). However, in 2001, EPA began implementing standards based on daily maximum 8-h mean concentrations rather than the former 1-h period. This study uses principal components analysis and multiple-regression analysis to forecast daily maximum 8-h ozone concentrations in the Baton Rouge, Louisiana, nonattainment zone. Although model performance for values at individual stations proved unsuccessful, likely because of the effects of local nonmeteorological conditions, a model for prediction of "exceedances" of the standards at three or more stations explains 46.2% of the variance in tropospheric ozone concentrations. Furthermore, a decision-making tree is proposed for short-range forecasting of whether an exceedance is expected. Results represent a first attempt to forecast 8-h peak tropospheric ozone concentrations for this region.
ISSN:0882-8156
1520-0434
DOI:10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<0371:SPOTOC>2.0.CO;2