Growth dynamics and forecasting of finger millet (Ragi) production in Karnataka

• Published in: Economic affairs (Calcutta) Vol. 61; no. 2; pp. 195 - 201
• Main Authors: Bellundagi, Veerabhadrappa, Umesh, K.B, Ravi, S.C
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New Delhi New Delhi Publishers 01.06.2016
• Subjects: Cereals; deceleration; Flowers & plants; Food; Forecasting; Growth; Growth models; instability; linear and non-linear; Poverty; Productivity; Studies; targeted public distribution system (TPDS); Time series; India
• ISSN: 0424-2513; 0976-4666
• DOI: 10.5958/0976-4666.2016.00027.9

The study aims at examining the growth and instability of area, production and productivity and forecasting of area and production of Finger Millet crop in the state and India. The study is based on the time series data on area, production and productivity from 1984–85 to 2014–15. The study period was divided into two sub-periods coincides with the introduction Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS) in 1997–98 i.e., period I (1984–85 to 1997–98) and period II (1999–00 to 2014–15). Thus, the total study period consists of 31 years. The growth rates in the area, production and productivity were calculated using compound growth rates. The trend lines showed an increase in both production and productivity in major ragi growing districts of Karnataka in both the periods, even though the showed area under the crop is decreasing. The analysis indicates that there was negative of growth in area and positive growth in productivity in all the major ragi growing districts of Karnataka in period I (1984–85 to 1997–98) and period II (1999–00 to 2014–15). The variability in production is attributed to declining in area and increase in productivity. The instability in the area, production and productivity were found to be more accelerated in period-II (1999–00 to 2014–15), compared to period-I (1984–85 to 1998–99). For forecasting ragi production, different linear and nonlinear growth models were explored. The forecasting results showed that, even though there was a deceleration in area, the production of ragi was increasing due to increase in productivity in the future time.