Wrestling with imponderables: assessing perceptions of biological-weapons utility

Understanding states' perception of biological-weapons (BW) utility is key to understanding the motivations behind states' development, possession, and use of these weapons. The calculations underlying a determination of utility are complex, having to balance threat perceptions, national s...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inThe Nonproliferation review Vol. 27; no. 4-6; pp. 343 - 366
Main Author Cross, Glenn
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Abingdon Routledge 01.09.2020
Taylor & Francis Ltd
Subjects
Assassinations & assassination attempts
Biological & chemical weapons
biological warfare
biological weapons
Case studies
Covert operations
Diplomacy
Korean War
Nuclear weapons
Perceptions
State
United Kingdom
United States
World War II
United States > US
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Summary:Understanding states' perception of biological-weapons (BW) utility is key to understanding the motivations behind states' development, possession, and use of these weapons. The calculations underlying a determination of utility are complex, having to balance threat perceptions, national scientific and industrial capacities, diplomatic relations, and the importance of prohibitory norms. Case studies of the former US and British offensive BW programs, beginning in World War II, illustrate how perceptions of BW utility evolve under wartime circumstances. The US case also illustrates how perceptions of BW utility heightened during periods of international tension, namely the Korean War and early in the John F. Kennedy administration. Both the US and UK examples also demonstrate how possession of nuclear weapons affected perceptions of BW utility and the role of BW in military doctrine. Given the prohibitions on BW development and possession, BW utility today is limited to small-scale, covert operations, including assassinations, much like the recent assassinations and attempted assassinations conducted by North Korea and Russia. Unlike chemical weapons, BW have the additional characteristics of delaying the onset of effects, mimicking natural diseases, and foiling attribution efforts.
ISSN:1073-6700
1746-1766
DOI:10.1080/10736700.2020.1858621