Validation of the 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet and EuroSCORE at the Heart Institute - USP

To validate the 2000 Bernstein Parsonnet (2000BP) and additive EuroSCORE (ES) to predict mortality in patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at the Heart Institute, University of São Paulo (InCor/HC-FMUSP). A prospective observational design. We analyzed 3000 conse...

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Published inRevista brasileira de cirurgia cardiovascular : orgao oficial da Sociedade Brasileira de Cirurgia Cardiovascular Vol. 27; no. 2; p. 187
Main Authors Mejía, Omar Asdrúbal Vilca, Lisboa, Luiz Augusto Ferreira, Dallan, Luis Alberto Oliveira, Pomerantzeff, Pablo Maria Alberto, Moreira, Luiz Felipe Pinho, Jatene, Fabio Biscegli, Stolf, Noedir Antonio Groppo
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Brazil 01.04.2012
Subjects
Aged
Brazil
Calibration
Cardiac Care Facilities - statistics & numerical data
Cardiac Surgical Procedures - mortality
Decision Support Techniques
Epidemiologic Methods
Female
Hospital Mortality
Humans
Male
Middle Aged
Prospective Studies
Reference Values
Risk Assessment - methods
Brazil
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Summary:To validate the 2000 Bernstein Parsonnet (2000BP) and additive EuroSCORE (ES) to predict mortality in patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at the Heart Institute, University of São Paulo (InCor/HC-FMUSP). A prospective observational design. We analyzed 3000 consecutive patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery, between May 2007 and July 2009 at the InCor/HC-FMUSP. Mortality was calculated with the 2000BP and ES models. The correlation between estimated mortality and observed mortality was validated by calibration and discrimination tests. There were significant differences in the prevalence of risk factors between the study population, 2000BP and ES. Patients were stratified into five groups for 2000BP and three for the ES. In the validation of models, the ES showed good calibration (P = 0.596), however, the 2000BP (P = 0.047) proved inadequate. In discrimination, the area under the ROC curve proved to be good for models, ES (0.79) and 2000BP (0.80). In the validation, 2000BP proved questionable and ES appropriate to predict mortality in patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at the InCor/HC-FMUSP.
DOI:10.5935/1678-9741.20120033