Enhanced streamflow forecasting using attention-based neural network models: a comparative study in MOPEX basins

• Published in: Modeling earth systems and environment Vol. 10; no. 4; pp. 5717 - 5734
• Main Authors: Muhammad, Abdullahi Uwaisu, Muazu, Tasiu, Ying, Haihua, Ba, Abdoul Fatakhou, Tijjani, Sani, Adam, Jibril Muhammad, Bello, Aliyu Uthman, Bala, Muhammad Muhammad, Ali, Mosaad Ali Hussein, Dabai, Umar Sani, Umar Muhammad Mustapha Kumshe, Yahaya, Muhammad Sabo
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cham Springer International Publishing 01.08.2024; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Artificial intelligence; Basins; Chemistry and Earth Sciences; Comparative analysis; Comparative studies; Computer Science; Data collection; Datasets; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth System Sciences; Ecosystems; Environment; Flood forecasting; Flood predictions; Flow rates; Geological surveys; Hydrologic data; Long short-term memory; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science; Mathematical Applications in the Physical Sciences; Neural networks; Original Article; Physics; Statistics for Engineering; Stream discharge; Stream flow; Streamflow forecasting; Time series; Attention mechanism; Hydrology; LSTM; Streamflow forecasting; MOPEX basins
• ISSN: 2363-6203; 2363-6211
• DOI: 10.1007/s40808-024-02088-y

To mitigate the adverse effects of floods, hydrologists are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence methodologies to enhance streamflow forecasting capabilities. Drawing inspiration from the efficacy of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model in capturing temporal dynamics and dependencies within data set, we have employed LSTM for predicting sequential flow rates utilizing collected data sets. Recognizing that not all data set contribute equally to accurate flood forecasts, it becomes imperative to discern and prioritize the relevant variables. Conventional LSTM models often fall short in effectively identifying and ranking informative factors. To overcome this limitation, we introduce an Attention LSTM (ALSTM) model tailored for streamflow forecasting, adept at identifying and capturing critical factors within the time series dataset. Leveraging data set sourced from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), our proposed model exhibits notable performance enhancements. By integrating an attention mechanism during the pre-processing stage, the ALSTM model showcases its ability to generate precise long-term forecasts across most of the basins. Utilizing a continuous 33-year streamflow data set (1970–2003), our proposed model surpasses conventional time series approaches in streamflow forecasting accuracy.