Exponential Growth Model for Forecasting of Area and Production of Potato Crop in Pakistan

According to Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan, the area and production of potato have increased from 78.9 thousand hectares and 1063.5 thousands ton in 1995-96 to 172.8 thousand hectares and 3785.9 thousands ton in 2012-13, respectively.The policy makers of the country needs an accurate and advan...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inPakistan journal of agricultural research Vol. 31; no. 1
Main Authors Abid, Saleem, Jamal, Nasir, Anwar, Muhammad Zubair, Zahid, Saleem
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Islamabad AsiaNet Pakistan (Pvt) Ltd 01.03.2018
Subjects
Agricultural production
Consumption
Corn
Crops
Economic forecasting
Economic models
Growth models
Potatoes
Rice
Software
Stochastic models
Sugarcane
Time series
Wheat
Islamabad Pakistan
Bangladesh
Pakistan
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Summary:According to Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan, the area and production of potato have increased from 78.9 thousand hectares and 1063.5 thousands ton in 1995-96 to 172.8 thousand hectares and 3785.9 thousands ton in 2012-13, respectively.The policy makers of the country needs an accurate and advance information about the status of different crops such as wheat, rice and potato etc ahead of harvest and till the availability of final estimates.[...]accurate forecasting of potato area and production may support the policy makers and planners for making policy decision regarding supply, demand and import/export of potato in the country.Linear Trend Model: Y = b0 + b1 x t Quadratic Trend Model: Y = b0 + b1 x t + b2 x t² Exponential Growth Model: Y = b0 eb1xt S Curve Model (Pearl-Reed logistic trend model): Yt = 10a / b0 + b1 x b2t Where: Y: area and production of potato crop in Pakistan; t Trend which determines the tendency of time series data to increase or decrease over time; b0, b1and b2:Diagnostic measures for selection of best fitted model for potato production in Pakistan Forecasting models Criteria MAPE MAD MSD Linear trend model 25.0 267.0 107479.0 Quadratic trend model 8.6 117.2 36840.0 Exponential growth model 8.0 112.8 33146.4 S curve model 8.8 138.7 45354.9 Double exponential 10.5 159.3 53297.7 smoothing model It was revealed from the results that the value of forecasting errors were lowest for exponential growth model and was consequently selected as a best fitting model for predicting potato area in Pakistan.
ISSN:0251-0480
2227-8311
DOI:10.17582/journal.pjar/2018/31.1.24.28