Risk-neutral and risk-averse size optimization of a hydrogen-based hybrid energy system considering solar radiation uncertainty

• Published in: International journal of hydrogen energy Vol. 117; pp. 238 - 254
• Main Authors: Keshavarz, Gholam Reza, Askarzadeh, Alireza, Alipour, Mohammad Ali
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 08.04.2025
• Subjects: Hybrid energy systems; Hydrogen fuel cell; Information gap decision theory; Size optimization; Solar radiation uncertainty; Hydrogen fuel cell; Information gap decision theory; Size optimization; Hybrid energy systems; Solar radiation uncertainty
• ISSN: 0360-3199
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2025.03.143

Due to abundance and effectiveness, photovoltaics (PVs) are the inseparable part of most hybrid energy systems (HESs). In HESs, due to the stochastic nature of climatic conditions, accurate estimation of solar radiation is a challenging issue. Because the output power of PV systems is directly proportional to the solar radiation, it is essential to model this uncertainty in the design problems. In this paper, the main goal is to develop a risk-averse model to optimally design a reliable and cost-effective off-grid HES composed of PV, hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) and diesel generator. In the proposed model, solar radiation uncertainty is modelled by information gap decision theory (IGDT) and the HES is sized to be robust against the reduction of the radiation. For this goal, an objective function is defined based on total net present cost (TNPC) and the value TNPC is minimized by crow search algorithm (CSA) in a risk-neutral strategy subject to reliability level and dumped energy. Then, risk-averse strategy is investigated which aims to maximize the uncertainty radius. Over a case study, simulation results accentuate the usefulness of the proposed framework. It is observed that if 5 % increase of the system cost is accepted, solar radiation can decrease up to 28.5 %. [Display omitted] •Size optimization of an off-grid PV-HFC-diesel HES in risk-averse framework.•Size optimization of an off-grid PV-HFC-diesel HES in risk-neutral framework.•Modeling solar radiation uncertainty by IGDT.•Evaluation of reliability level on optimal size of HES.