Incorporation crisis lifecycle theory into full-stage flash drought spatio-temporal pattern identification and risk analysis

• Published in: Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam) Vol. 642; p. 131828
• Main Authors: Qi, Zixuan, Ye, Yuchen, Cai, Yanpeng, Yuan, Chaoxia, Xie, Yulei, Cheng, Guanhui, Zhang, Pingping, Sun, Lian
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.10.2024
• Subjects: Crisis lifecycle theories; Flash drought; Risk management; Seasonal drought; Spatiotemporal evolution analysis; Crisis lifecycle theories; Seasonal drought; Risk management; Spatiotemporal evolution analysis; Flash drought
• ISSN: 0022-1694
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131828

•An improved flash drought identification framework was constructed based on the crisis lifecycle theory;•The spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of the full lifecycle of flash droughts were analyzed;•The uncertainties of the full lifecycle flash drought identification framework regarding the depth of soil moisture depths and the thresholds for drought termination are discussed. Compared to conventional slow-developing droughts, the characteristics and drivers of flash droughts are often more complex. This complexity challenges global drought early warning systems, leading to severe losses in crop yields during flash drought events. To address this problem, our study introduces the Full Life Cycle Flash Drought Identification Framework (FLCFDIF), which incorporates crisis lifecycle theories to link the lifecycle progression of flash droughts with corresponding risk management measures. The results indicate significant differences in the risk characteristics of flash drought events are observed between monsoon and non-monsoon regions of China, with flash droughts in monsoon regions erupting more rapidly, lasting longer, and recovering more slowly than flash droughts in non-monsoon areas. Flash droughts typically feature negative precipitation anomalies and positive anomalies in maximum temperature and evapotranspiration during the progression of the droughts. However, the high-intensity precipitation events that drive flash drought recovery primarily occur during the termination phase rather than the previously assumed recovery phase. Therefore, employing a 40% soil moisture percentile as a threshold for determining the end of flash droughts can reduce disturbances from low-intensity precipitation events and establish a link between flash droughts and seasonal droughts. In Southeast China, the probability of flash droughts transitioning to seasonal droughts is approximately 10%. In future flash drought risk management, it is crucial to integrate the four stages of flash drought progression (development, duration, recovery, and termination) and implement timely emergency response actions, including warning, assessment, mitigation, and monitoring, to address the environmental impacts of flash drought events.