Quarantine Model on the Transmission of Ebola Virus Disease in the Human Population with Infectious Dead Class

• Published in: International journal of applied and computational mathematics Vol. 9; no. 6
• Main Authors: Mishra, Archana, Mishra, Bimal Kumar, Keshri, Ajit Kumar
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New Delhi Springer India 01.12.2023; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Applications of Mathematics; Applied mathematics; Computational mathematics; Computational Science and Engineering; Disease control; Ebola virus; Epidemics; Infections; Mathematical and Computational Physics; Mathematical Modeling and Industrial Mathematics; Mathematical models; Mathematics; Mathematics and Statistics; Nuclear Energy; Operations Research/Decision Theory; Original Paper; Quarantine; Stability analysis; Theoretical; Time series; Viral diseases; Infectious disease; 92D30; 34D23; Quarantine; Mathematical model; Ebola; Reproduction number; 92C60
• ISSN: 2349-5103; 2199-5796
• DOI: 10.1007/s40819-023-01608-1

The deadly Ebola virus which spreads through human-to-human transmission via direct contact is a serious threat to the human population where the rate of death due to the Ebola virus infection is very high, with an average of approximately fifty percent, which has been seen to go as high as ninety percent in some outbreaks. In this paper, we attempt to understand the spreading behavior of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the human population by developing a novel epidemic model with five classes susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantine- infectious dead. We have used the very close real parametric values as per the data released by the World Health Organization (WHO). To minimize the spread of EVD, critical analysis is performed both in the presence and absence of control measures. The effect of quarantine on the infectious population is critically analyzed, and it is observed that quarantining the infectious population may play a vital role in controlling the spread of EVD. The reproduction number is obtained and the asymptotic stability is established both analytically and numerically. Extensive numerical simulations with examples and time series analysis are carried out under different control measures using MATLAB. Numerical simulations of our model and time series analysis reveal that the dead bodies are a major source of the spread of infection and thus our assumption that the deaths occurring among patients in the infectious or quarantined classes, lead to a transition into the dead (D) class, which contributes to the process of infection of susceptible members of the population is established. Once the dead bodies are buried, only they are assumed to be finally removed from the population. Introducing infectious dead class in our model is a novel idea that helped us to understand how we can minimize the transmission rate of EVD in the population.