Historical analysis and modeling of the forest carbon dynamics using the Carbon Budget Model: an example for the Trento Province (NE, Italy)

• Published in: Forest@ Vol. 11; no. 1; pp. 20 - 35
• Main Authors: Pilli, R, Grassi, G, Cescatti, A
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Italian
• Published: Italian Society of Silviculture and Forest Ecology (SISEF) 28.02.2014
• Subjects: Carbon Budget Model; Gestione Forestale; INFC; Provincia di Trento; Utilizzazioni
• ISSN: 1824-0119; 1824-0119
• DOI: 10.3832/efor1138-011

Historical analysis and modeling of the forest carbon dynamics using the Carbon Budget Model: an example for the Trento Province (NE, Italy). The Carbon Budget Model (CBM-CFS3) developed by the Canadian Forest Service was applied to data collected by the last Italian National Forest Inventory (INFC) for the Trento Province (NE, Italy). CBM was modified and adapted to the different management types (i.e., even-aged high forests, uneven-aged high forests and coppices) and silvicultural systems (including clear cuts, single tree selection systems and thinning) applied in this province. The aim of this study was to provide an example of down-scaling of this model from a national to a regional scale, providing (i) an historical analysis, from 1995 to 2011, and (ii) a projection, from 2012 to 2020, of the forest biomass and the carbon stock evolution. The analysis was based on the harvest rate reported by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (from 1995 to 2011), corrected according to the last INFC data and distinguished between timber and fuel woods and between conifers and broadleaves. Since 2012, we applied a constant harvest rate, equal to about 1300 Mm3 yr-1, estimated from the average harvest rate for the period 2006-2011. Model results were consistent with similar data reported in the literature. The average biomass C stock was 90 Mg C ha-1 and the biomass C stock change was 0.97 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 and 0.87 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, for the period 1995 -2011 and 2012-2020, respectively. The C stock cumulated by the timber products since 1995 was 96 Gg C yr-1, i.e., about 28% of the average annual C stock change of the forests, equal to 345 Gg C yr-1. CBM also provided estimates on the evolution of the age class distribution of the even-aged forests and on the C stock of the DOM forest pools (litter, dead wood and soil). This study demonstrates the utility of CBM to provide estimates at a regional or local scale, using not only the data provided by the forest inventories, but also by forest management plans.