An Actuarial Survey of Statistical Models for Decrement and Transition Data - I: Multiple State, Poisson and Binomial Models

This paper surveys some statistical models of survival data. A basic model of a random lifetime is defined, and censoring is introduced. Methods based on observations of small segments of lifetimes are compared. Markov and semi-Markov (multiple state) models are recommended as well-understood and fl...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inBritish Actuarial Journal Vol. 2; no. 1; pp. 129 - 155
Main Author Macdonald, A.S.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Cambridge, UK Cambridge University Press 01.04.1996
Institute of Actuaries and the Faculty of Actuaries
Subjects
Actuarial science
Censorship
Estimators
Life tables
Maximum likelihood estimation
Modeling
Mortality
Random variables
Sessional meetings: papers and abstracts of discussions
Statistical models
Statistics
Balducci Assumption
Multiple State Models
Censoring
Actuarial Estimate
Markov Models
Semi-Markov Models
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Summary:This paper surveys some statistical models of survival data. A basic model of a random lifetime is defined, and censoring is introduced. Methods based on observations of small segments of lifetimes are compared. Markov and semi-Markov (multiple state) models are recommended as well-understood and flexible models well suited to actuarial data. A Poisson model is discussed as an approximation to a two state model, while traditional Binomial-type models are shown to be more restricted and less tractable than multiple state models.
ISSN:1357-3217
2044-0456
1748-5002
DOI:10.1017/S1357321700003366