A novel grey seasonal model with time power for energy prediction

• Published in: Expert systems with applications Vol. 259; p. 125356
• Main Authors: Zhou, Weijie, Chang, Jiaxin, Jiang, Huimin, Ding, Song, Jiang, Rongrong, Guo, Xupeng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.01.2025
• Subjects: Cultural algorithm; Energy prediction; Grey prediction model; Seasonal time series; Time power item; Energy prediction; Grey prediction model; Time power item; Seasonal time series; Cultural algorithm
• ISSN: 0957-4174
• DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2024.125356

The fluctuation of seasonal time series has attracted considerable attention. However, the complexity of socio-economic development and the variability of influencing factors make accurate predictions of seasonal time series more difficult. A new discrete grey seasonal model, namely DGSTPM(1,1), is established, which employs the time power term based on the cultural algorithm to effectively deal with the time sequences characterized by nonlinear tendency and periodic fluctuations. Firstly, the operating mechanism of the DGSTPM(1,1) model is expounded by combining the time power item with the traditional grey seasonal model to enhance the forecasting capability. Then, the optimal time power index of the model can be determined by incorporating the cultural algorithm. Subsequently, several properties are thoroughly discussed to illustrate the superiority and uniformity of the new model. Finally, two energy-related cases with different data features and sample sizes are applied to identify the efficacy and robustness of the DGSTPM(1,1) model, referring to monthly crude oil production in the United States and quarterly coke production in China. Based on the various error criteria, SPA and DM tests, the results indicate that the DGSTPM(1,1) outperforms its competitors both in simulation and prediction phases, including DGSTM(1,1), SGM(1,1), SDTGM, FTGM, SARIMA, LSSVM, BPNN, and LSTM models. Meanwhile, the new model can effectively address seasonal time series with nonlinear characteristics owing to its dynamic time power item with the support of the cultural algorithm.