Crop Yield Forecasted Model Based on Time Series Techniques

Traditional studies on potential yield mainly referred to attainable yield： the maximum yield which could be reached by a crop in a given environment. The new concept of crop yield under average climate conditions was defined in this paper, which was affected by advancement of science and technology...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inThe journal of Northeast Agricultural University Vol. 19; no. 1; pp. 73 - 77
Main Author Li Hong-ying Hou Yan-lin Zhou Yong-juan Zhao Hui-ming
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Elsevier (Singapore) Pte Ltd 01.03.2012
Subjects
forecasting model
potential yield
time series technique
yield channel
yield turning point
time series technique
yield turning point
forecasting model
yield channel
potential yield
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Summary:Traditional studies on potential yield mainly referred to attainable yield： the maximum yield which could be reached by a crop in a given environment. The new concept of crop yield under average climate conditions was defined in this paper, which was affected by advancement of science and technology. Based on the new concept of crop yield, the time series techniques relying on past yield data was employed to set up a forecasting model. The model was tested by using average grain yields of Liaoning Province in China from 1949 to 2005. The testing combined dynamic n-choosing and micro tendency rectification, and an average forecasting error was 1.24%. In the trend line of yield change, and then a yield turning point might occur, in which case the inflexion model was used to solve the problem of yield turn point.
Bibliography:Traditional studies on potential yield mainly referred to attainable yield： the maximum yield which could be reached by a crop in a given environment. The new concept of crop yield under average climate conditions was defined in this paper, which was affected by advancement of science and technology. Based on the new concept of crop yield, the time series techniques relying on past yield data was employed to set up a forecasting model. The model was tested by using average grain yields of Liaoning Province in China from 1949 to 2005. The testing combined dynamic n-choosing and micro tendency rectification, and an average forecasting error was 1.24%. In the trend line of yield change, and then a yield turning point might occur, in which case the inflexion model was used to solve the problem of yield turn point.
23-1392/S
potential yield, forecasting model, time series technique, yield turning point, yield channel
ISSN:1006-8104
DOI:10.1016/S1006-8104(12)60042-7