Assessing the impact of contrail avoidance through rescheduling on airline network flows: A case study of North Atlantic flights

• Published in: Transportation research. Part A, Policy and practice Vol. 187; p. 104155
• Main Authors: Kölker, Katrin, Zengerling, Zarah, Kühlen, Markus, Lütjens, Klaus, Linke, Florian
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 01.09.2024
• Subjects: Airline network; Contrail formation; Rescheduling flights; Contrail formation; Rescheduling flights; Airline network
• ISSN: 0965-8564
• DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104155

Contrail cirrus significantly influence aviation’s radiative forcing and contribute to the resulting climate effect. Several operational strategies have been investigated and are expected to reduce the environmental impact of contrails. For instance, flight routes can be modified spatially to avoid ice-supersaturated regions, thus the formation of contrails. Alternatively, flights can be rescheduled to other time slots when the time-dependent effect of contrails is reduced. Adjusting flights has a complex and cascading effect on airlines and the setup of the airline network. This paper aims at understanding and measuring these propagated consequences. However, on a more global basis, this study aims at introducing an approach of understanding and measuring the general changes of network effects induced by external network adaptations that are not limited to rescheduling flights. To do so, this study investigates the impact of short-term operational adjustments on the scheduling of an airline network. Therefore, means to measure the impact of minor network adaptations on the airline networks including the operation of the fleet, the robustness and the demand are introduced. Additionally, the ability of the network to offset any losses by supplemental network enhancement is investigated. The losses can be partially compensated for by modifying the fleet assignment and rescheduling additional short-haul flights within the network. In order to demonstrate the approach, this study examines the impact of rescheduling flights to minimize contrail-induced climate effects on airline networks and the resulting costs for airline operations. The findings of the study suggest that even airline networks with restricted dynamics are capable of adapting to required rescheduling to reduce the impact and formation of contrails.