Possible extinction of Eversmannia subspinosa in Eastern Alborz by 2060 due to climate change: a MaxEnt study

• Published in: Theoretical and applied climatology Vol. 155; no. 7; pp. 6917 - 6929
• Main Authors: Zaheri, Amir, Naderi, Reza, Amirahmadi, Atefe
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Vienna Springer Vienna 01.07.2024
• Subjects: Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Atmospheric Sciences; Climatology; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control
• ISSN: 0177-798X; 1434-4483
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-024-05047-w

In this study, we modeled the current and future distribution of Eversmannia subspinosa , a shrub from the Fabaceae family, across the Eastern Alborz area, Iran. This plant is endangered in Iran and is only found in the study area. To the best of our knowledge, no published species distribution modeling exists for this species, making this study crucial for conservation planning. We used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method and trained the model with the least correlated and most important bioclimatic and topographic variables. CMCC-ESM2 and HadGEM3 climate models, in conjunction with IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, were used to predict the distribution of the species in 2040 and 2060. Our results suggest that the current habitats of E. subspinosa are mainly in southern parts of Eastern Alborz. Annual mean temperature (57.7%) and elevation (18.8%) were the main contributors to the model. CMCC-ESM2 model predicts habitat loss to the extent of 16.55% (RCP2.6), 50.19% (RCP4.5), and 49.56% (RCP8.5) up to 2040 and substantial reduction of high probable habitats (0.5 ≤ probability of presence) up to 2060. It also suggests a distribution shift toward higher elevations in Northern and North-Eastern areas of the study area. The model trained by HadGEM3 predicts extinction of E. subspinosa across the study area up to 2040. Enhancing connectivity between protected areas and national parks could delay the extinction of E. subspinosa in Iran. Also, limiting road construction aids its migration to cooler elevations in response to global warming.