The terrible unknown: How uncertainty fosters nationalist and anti-immigration attitudes

• Published in: Journal of social and political psychology Vol. 12; no. 1; pp. 23 - 37
• Main Authors: Alves, Sara G., Pinto, Isabel R., Marques, José M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: PsychOpen GOLD/ Leibniz Institute for Psychology 06.03.2024
• Subjects: attitudes towards immigrants; nationalism; realistic threat; symbolic threat; uncertainty
• ISSN: 2195-3325; 2195-3325
• DOI: 10.5964/jspp.9953

Uncertainty-identity theory (Hogg, 2000, 2007, 2012) postulates that people strengthen their adherence to, and identification with, extreme ideologies when they undergo an enduring uncertainty regarding their self-definition. Concomitantly, nationalist and extreme right-wing ideologies have been associated with the attribution of a threatening character to immigrant and refugee groups. We propose that self-uncertainty precedes the perceived threat posed by the latter groups, which in turn predicts adherence to nationalist attitudes. In one correlational (Study 1; n = 169) and one experimental study (Study 2; n = 309), we tested the mediational effects of perceived realistic and symbolic threat towards immigrants on the association between self-uncertainty and nationalist attitudes (belief in national superiority, support for anti-immigration laws and intention to vote for an anti-immigration party). In both studies, perceived realistic threat emerged as the most reliable mediator between self-uncertainty and nationalist attitudes. In addition (Study 2), we found a causal effect of self-uncertainty on realistic threat. We discuss the implications of these findings for social inclusion policies based on the reduction of uncertainty generated by immigration. Background Immigrant populations in Europe have steadily increased since the 1970s. This increase stirred up European citizens’ support for anti-immigration movements, claiming that immigration yields economic and cultural costs to native European populations. As a result, many countries have seen progress towards an inclusive society relatively compromised. In Portugal (where we conducted the present studies), immigration significantly increased from 1980 onwards. In 2021, when our most recent data were collected, 5.2% of the country’s population was of foreign origin. We believe that this calls for an examination of the antecedents and correlates of nationalist and anti-immigration attitudes in a Portuguese sample. Why was this study done? Psychological uncertainty is an aversive feeling, especially when it is important for individuals’ self-definition. Individuals may attempt to reduce self-uncertainty by increasing their ingroup identification with a group that helps individuals deal with this uncertainty. This should be expressed in terms of negative feelings towards the outgroup (threat) and increased adherence to a nationalist position. The present study examines how immigration-related self-uncertainty felt by members of the host population generates perceived threat and negative attitudes towards immigration while strengthening belief in the host national superiority. What did the researchers do and find? We conducted one correlational and one experimental study (respectively, Study 1 and Study 2). In Study 1, participants indicated their level of uncertainty regarding immigration, their feelings of threat, their belief in national superiority and their support for anti-immigration laws. In Study 2, we divided participants into two (High versus Low) uncertainty conditions. We measured the effect of uncertainty on the measures used in Study 1, as well as on participants’ motivation to vote for an anti-immigration party. We found that uncertainty generates perceptions of realistic threat (i.e., threat regarding the nation’s material resources), in association with stronger adherence to nationalist attitudes (belief in national superiority, support for anti-immigration laws and motivation to vote for an anti-immigration party). Symbolic threat (i.e., threat to the nation’s values and identity) was related to these positions in a way similar to realistic threat but did not increase with higher uncertainty. What do these findings mean? Our findings suggest that, when people are uncertain about immigration, they perceive that immigrants jeopardise the ingroup nation’s material resources, and that they deserve less to share these resources. Perceived threat increases the former’s belief in their ingroup nation’s superiority, support for legislation that limits immigration, and a concomitant willingness to vote for anti-immigration political parties. Although social psychological research has long shown that people are resilient to factual information contradicting their beliefs, policymakers might consider counteracting nationalist and anti-immigration attitudes by emphasising the non-threatening and beneficial character of immigration to the host nation.