Forecasting Extreme Space-Weather Events on the Basis of Cosmic-Ray Fluctuations

In extreme events of space weather, very large fluxes of “storm” particles are formed preceding the arrival of a shock wave into the Earth’s orbit. They are the ones that pose the greatest danger to life-support systems in the upper atmosphere, in space, and on the Earth. The results have been check...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inCosmic research Vol. 60; no. 2; pp. 79 - 88
Main Author Kozlov, V. I.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Moscow Pleiades Publishing 2022
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Astronomy
Astrophysics and Astroparticles
Astrophysics and Cosmology
Cosmic ray showers
Cosmic rays
Extreme weather
Physics
Physics and Astronomy
Reliability analysis
Shock waves
Space Exploration and Astronautics
Space Sciences (including Extraterrestrial Physics
Space weather
Spacecraft
Spacecraft reliability
Storm forecasting
Upper atmosphere
Weather forecasting
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Summary:In extreme events of space weather, very large fluxes of “storm” particles are formed preceding the arrival of a shock wave into the Earth’s orbit. They are the ones that pose the greatest danger to life-support systems in the upper atmosphere, in space, and on the Earth. The results have been checked of the prediction of “storm” particles accelerated by shock waves from variations in high-energy cosmic rays by measurements on the ACE spacecraft (United States). The forecast reliability is assessed at P ≥ 80%.
ISSN:0010-9525
1608-3075
DOI:10.1134/S0010952522010063