Modeling a Greener Future

• Published in: American scientist Vol. 111; no. 4; pp. 208 - 210
• Main Author: Way, Rupert
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Research Triangle Park Sigma XI-The Scientific Research Society 01.07.2023
• Subjects: Alternative energy sources; Clean energy; Clean technology; Climate change; Climate change mitigation; Cost benefit analysis; Cost control; Electricity; Electricity distribution; Emissions; Energy costs; Energy resources; Energy technology; Environment models; Fossil fuels; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gases; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Renewable energy; Solar energy; Technology; Trends; Wind power
• ISSN: 0003-0996; 1545-2786
• DOI: 10.1511/2023.111.4.208

When scientists try to understand how Earth's climate is changing and how they might halt the rise of global temperatures, they turn to models. Some models predict how global temperatures will rise depending on future rates of greenhouse gas emissions, and how those temperature increases will likely affect humans and the environment. Other models forecast the costs and benefits of various strategies to mitigate climate change. But all of these models have limitations and sometimes need to be adjusted based on new data. Now is one of those times. The need to adjust models is especially acute when it comes to human and technological factors, which can be hard to quantify and about which we often have poor intuition. Over the past two decades, the half-dozen large energy models used to inform the influential reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have systematically overestimated future costs of key green energy technologies.