Evolution and early warning of supply risks across entire product chain of China’s rare mineral resources

• Published in: Zi yuan ke xue Vol. 47; no. 7; pp. 1462 - 1475
• Main Authors: Di, WANG, Qiaosheng, WU, Qiang, WANG, Cheng, YANG, Jingyuan, LI
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: Science Press, PR China 01.07.2025
• Subjects: rare mineral resources|strategic emerging industries|entire product chain|supply risk|risk early warning|china
• ISSN: 1007-7588
• DOI: 10.18402/resci.2025.07.06

[Objective] Rare mineral resources are critical raw materials supporting strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, and their supply security has become a major concern in resource risk governance for major countries worldwide. This study aims to identify and evaluate the evolutionary characteristics of supply risks across the entire product chain of rare mineral resources required by China’s strategic emerging industries, and to provide early warning of future risk trends, thereby providing a scientific basis for resource security planning in related Chinese industries. [Methods] A “risk triangle” analytical framework—comprising hazard, exposure, and vulnerability—was developed to elucidate the formation mechanisms of supply risks across the entire product chain of rare mineral resources. Five key resources critical to the development of China’s strategic emerging industries—lithium (Li), beryllium (Be), niobium (Nb), tantalum (Ta), and zirconium (Zr)—were selected, and their supply risks from upstream primary mineral products to downstream end-use products from 2010 to 2020 were quantified and classified using the BGR-VW method. Furthermore, a GM(1,1) grey prediction model was employed to provide early warning for supply risks of these resources from 2025 to 2030. [Results] (1) Li and Be exhibited relatively low supply risks (“relaxed” level). Nb and Ta maintained “moderate” risk levels throughout the study period, with Nb’s average risk and Ta’s risk volatility exceeding those of Li and Be. The average supply risk of Zr was high (“tight” level), imposing severe constraints on downstream new materials industries. (2) The sources of supply risk for different resources exhibited heterogeneous characteristics. Li’s supply risk was jointly driven by hazard and vulnerability. Be’s supply risk was primarily influenced by persistently high hazard levels and relatively wide fluctuations in exposure. Nb’s risk arose predominantly from exposure. Ta’s risk was driven by both hazard and exposure. Zr’s risk was driven by exposure and vulnerability. (3) During 2025-2030, Li, Nb, and Ta were projected to maintain “relaxed” supply risk levels. The supply risk of Be would rise from “relaxed” to “tight” level, and the supply risk of Zr would remain at the “tight” level. [Conclusion] Based on the identified driving factors and future evolution trends of supply risks across China’s entire rare mineral product chain, it is recommended to optimize the “hazard-exposure-vulnerability” triangle framework to selectively reduce supply risks of rare mineral resources. This approach aims to provide robust support for the development of strategic emerging industries and ensure their stable and healthy operation.