Evolution of global trade patterns of lithium metal for power batteries from a market game equilibrium perspective

• Published in: Zi yuan ke xue Vol. 47; no. 7; pp. 1533 - 1545
• Main Authors: Qi, ZHANG, Boyu, LIU, Zhenyue, HUANG, Tian, MA, Ge, WANG
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Chinese; English
• Published: Science Press, PR China 01.07.2025
• Subjects: power battery|lithium metal|international trade|market game equilibrium|spatiotemporal evolution|global
• ISSN: 1007-7588
• DOI: 10.18402/resci.2025.07.11

[Objective] Resource nationalism and trade protectionism policies have significantly increased the uncertainties in the spatial evolution of international trade patterns and price fluctuations of lithium metal in power batteries. Exploring the resource trade patterns and price trends from the perspective of market game equilibrium is crucial for ensuring the supply security of lithium metal. [Methods] Based on the dynamic material flow analysis of lithium metal in power batteries, this study extracted the complex game relationships between major resource-producing and resource-consuming countries (regions) and their key constraints. A multi-regional market game equilibrium model for the global lithium metal for power batteries was constructed to solve the spatial trade patterns and resource price trends under multiple policy scenarios from 2023 to 2035. [Results] (1) From 2023 to 2035, global demand for lithium metal was expected to show a rapid growth trend, with an average annual growth rate of about 19.4%, reaching 3.725 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2035. The major demand would come from the world’s leading new energy vehicle manufacturing countries (regions), including China, the European Union, and the United States. (2) By 2035, the main suppliers of lithium metal were expected to be resource-endowed countries such as Argentina, Chile, and Australia. China would remain the largest importer, with its import dependence projected to reach as high as 76.0%-84.9% despite a substantial increase in domestic production capacity. The United States, the European Union, the Republic of Korea, and Japan were projected to be potential major global importers of lithium metal. (3) Due to rising demand and declining ore grades, the long-term market equilibrium prices under all scenarios were expected to exceed the historical average level of 89 thousand yuan/ton of lithium carbonate equivalent before the lithium price surge in August 2021. The market equilibrium price under the scenario of downstream industry localization and trade market discrimination was expected to reach 109 thousand yuan/ton of lithium carbonate equivalent, and under the scenario of upstream supply disruption and alliance with upstream industries, it could rise to 117-121 thousand yuan/ton of lithium carbonate equivalent. [Conclusion] This study analyzes the trade patterns of lithium metal from the perspective of market game equilibrium, expanding the scope of trade pattern research. Additionally, based on multiple policy design scenarios, it provides more practically oriented decision-making support for major resource-consuming countries (regions) in formulating strategies to ensure the security of lithium metal supply for power batteries.