Launch Uncertainty Analysis Under Barrel Erosion Using Experiments and Random Matrix Theory

• Published in: International journal of mechanical system dynamics
• Main Authors: Guo, Chengyuan, Yang, Guolai, Wang, Liqun, Ge, Jianli, Wu, Qingle, Guo, Hao
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 31.07.2025
• ISSN: 2767-1399; 2767-1402
• DOI: 10.1002/msd2.70034

The effects of barrel erosion on artillery firing performance have long been a subject of concern, but its effect on launch uncertainty has yet to be investigated. This article explores the influence of barrel erosion on the interior ballistic mechanical properties and launch disturbances. The interior ballistic mechanical properties under various barrel erosion conditions are tested, revealing a significant impact on the projectile lateral overload. Utilizing random matrix theory, a projectile‐barrel coupled calculation model is developed, accounting for parameter‐model uncertainties. Subsequently, a Bayesian posterior model uncertainty quantification method based on lateral overload root mean square (RMS) is proposed, and quantification and inversion are conducted based on the test results. The computational results confirm the accuracy of the quantification technique and highlight the effectiveness of the model uncertainty approach in addressing complex uncertainty issues, such as barrel erosion.