Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk in the Sichuan Basin Based on Information Diffusion Theory

• Published in: Meteorological and environmental research Vol. 5; no. 5; pp. 15 - 21
• Main Authors: Jian, Luan, Jianjie, Chen, Zhongguan, Lin, Peng, Wang, Di, Wang
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cranston Wu Chu (USA-China) Science and Culture Media Corporation 01.05.2014
• Subjects: Agricultural practices; Basins; Crops; Decision making; Diffusion; Disasters; Droughts; Emergency preparedness; Methods; Precipitation; Probability distribution; Risk; Risk assessment; Spatial distribution; Zoning; 信息扩散理论; 农业干旱; 农业旱情; 四川盆地; 干旱风险; 播种面积; 风险区划; 风险评估; Sichuan Basin; China; China, People's Rep., Zhejiang Prov., Changxing Cty., Meishan
• ISSN: 2152-3940

Based on data of agricultural drought situation and sown area of main crops in each county or district of the Sichuan Basin, the spatial distribution and probability of agricultural drought risk at different risk levels were studied using normal information diffusion method, and the risk zoning was carried out. The results showed that normal information diffusion method could fit the distribution of agricultural drought risk in the Sichuan Basin. By comparison with the end of the 20^th century, agricultural drought risk in Meishan, Chongqing City and so on increased at the beginning of the 21^st century when x1≥ 10% or x1≥40%. Agricultural drought risk was low in the west of the Sichuan Basin, which was related to rich precipitation here, but it was high in Bazhong, Zhongjiang, Luxian and so forth. The risk zoning results can provide scientific references for disaster prevention and emergency management of government.