1475Effects of climate factors on the dengue fever in Paraguay: generalized additive model in 2014-2020

• Published in: International journal of epidemiology Vol. 50; no. Supplement_1
• Main Author: Gomez, Raquel Elizabeth Gomez
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 01.09.2021
• ISSN: 0300-5771; 1464-3685
• DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyab168.231

Abstract Background Dengue fever is disease transmitted by mostly Aedes spp. This study aims investigate the association between climate factors and dengue incidence in Paraguay, considered as an endemic disease since 2009. Methods We extracted incidence of dengue by week from 2014-2020 national health surveillance, Paraguay. The climate factors, including rainfall, sunshine, minimum temperate, air pressure, relative humidity and wind were extracted from Directorate of Meteorology and Hydrology and aggregated as a weekly data. Generalized additive modeling was performed, adjusted by seasonality and population. Lags between 0-10 weeks were chosen for according to rho statistics of Spearman’s test. Results A total of dengue fever was 40,593 in study period. The mean cumulative incidence per 10,000 populations was 22.37 (standard deviation: 93.27). All six climate factors and seasonality were significant in the final model with the adjusted R-square 18.6%. Rainfall (relative risk [RR]: 0.51), relative humidity (RR: 0.25) and wind (RR: 0.19) showed negative trends with the increase of dengue while atmospheric pressure (RR: 9.32) and sunshine (RR: 0.12) showed positive associations. Minimum temperature showed increasing trend until 15ºC (1ºC increase in 4-fold incidence). The lag of each factor was selected between 2 to 10 weeks. Conclusion Climate factors showed associations with dengue fever in Paraguay. Such climate factors should be considered along with the dengue surveillance in endemic areas for effective dengue control. Key messages Climate factors showed significant dynamic associations with dengue incidence in Paraguay.