Investigating the consequences of climate change in runoff and sediment rate

• Published in: Arabian journal of geosciences Vol. 16; no. 5
• Main Authors: Rabiee, Mohammad Reza Sheykh, Peyrowan, Hamid Reza, Arasteh, Peyman Daneshkar, Akbary, Mehry, Motamedvaziri, Baharak
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cham Springer International Publishing 2023; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Algorithms; Climate change; Climate effects; Climate models; Correlation coefficient; Correlation coefficients; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth science; Earth Sciences; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Meteorological data; Original Paper; Precipitation; Runoff; Sediment; Sediments; SWAT; Sediment yield; Climate change; Runoff
• ISSN: 1866-7511; 1866-7538
• DOI: 10.1007/s12517-023-11352-x

This study aims at investigating the effects of climate change on runoff and sediment of Karganrood basin in Gilan province, Iran, for the first time. By entering the hydrometric and meteorological data into the SWAT model and using the SUFI-2 algorithm, the discharge and sediment simulation of the basin was calibrated and validated. More to the point, the current status data of Bandar Anzali synoptic station the HadGEM2-ES, MIROC, and NoerESM1-M climate models from the series of models of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were used to investigate the effects of climate change on runoff and sediment under two emission scenarios called RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These scenarios used in this research for three periods of 2025–2050, 2051–2075, and 2076–2100. Considering having the results of evaluation and validation of climate models through using Nash–Sutcliffe, correlation coefficient, and root-mean-square error, the HadGEM2-ES climatic model indicates the lowest error rate and the highest correlation in climatic factors. The results of the HadGEM2-ES model reveal the precipitation and maximum/minimum, and mean temperatures which were decreased in all upcoming periods based on RCP4.5. Based on the review of the HadGEM2-ES model results related to RCP8.5, it is predicted that the precipitation will be decreased in all upcoming periods and the maximum temperature will experience an increase within 2051–2075 and 2076–2100 periods. The results of the SWAT model also present that the runoff changes in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in all upcoming periods have a decreasing trend and the sediment changes have an increasing trend.