Consequences of More Extreme Precipitation Regimes for Terrestrial Ecosystems

• Published in: Bioscience Vol. 58; no. 9; pp. 811 - 821
• Main Authors: Knapp, Alan K., Beier, Claus, Briske, David D., Classen, Aimée T., Luo, Yiqi, Reichstein, Markus, Smith, Melinda D., Smith, Stanley D., Bell, Jesse E., Fay, Philip A., Heisler, Jana L., Leavitt, Steven W., Sherry, Rebecca, Smith, Benjamin, Weng, Ensheng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Circulation, AIBS, 1313 Dolley Madison Blvd., Suite 402, McLean, VA 22101. USA American Institute of Biological Sciences 01.10.2008; Oxford University Press
• Subjects: AMBIENT TEMPERATURE; AMPLIFICATION; ANOXIA; Atmospheric circulation; AVAILABILITY; Chemicals; Climate; Climate change; CLIMATES; Climatic changes; Dehydration; Drought; DROUGHTS; duration; Earth and Related Environmental Sciences; Ecological processes; Ecosystem dynamics; Ecosystem models; Ecosystem studies; ECOSYSTEMS; ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Evaluation; evaporation; General circulation models; Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap; global warming; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; Holistic Approach; Influence; literature reviews; Natural Sciences; Naturgeografi; Naturvetenskap; Overview Articles; Overview s; Physical Environment; Physical Geography; PRECIPITATION; Precipitation (Meteorology); Rain; SIMULATION; Soil ecology; Soil water; Soil water content; SOILS; STORAGE; STORMS; Temperature; TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS; WATER; water balance; Water balance (Hydrology); wetlands; United States; precipitation; soil water; drought; ecosystems; climate change
• ISSN: 0006-3568; 1525-3244
• DOI: 10.1641/B580908

Amplification of the hydrological cycle as a consequence of global warming is forecast to lead to more extreme intra-annual precipitation regimes characterized by larger rainfall events and longer intervals between events. We present a conceptual framework, based on past investigations and ecological theory, for predicting the consequences of this underappreciated aspect of climate change. We consider a broad range of terrestrial ecosystems that vary in their overall water balance. More extreme rainfall regimes are expected to increase the duration and severity of soil water stress in mesic ecosystems as intervals between rainfall events increase. In contrast, xeric ecosystems may exhibit the opposite response to extreme events. Larger but less frequent rainfall events may result in proportional reductions in evaporative losses in xeric systems, and thus may lead to greater soil water availability. Hydric (wetland) ecosystems are predicted to experience reduced periods of anoxia in response to prolonged intervals between rainfall events. Understanding these contingent effects of ecosystem water balance is necessary for predicting how more extreme precipitation regimes will modify ecosystem processes and alter interactions with related global change drivers.