A North Sea and Baltic Sea Model Ensemble Eutrophication Assessment

• Published in: Ambio Vol. 39; no. 1; pp. 59 - 69
• Main Authors: Almroth, Elin, Skogen, Morten D
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer 01.02.2010; Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences; Springer Netherlands; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Assessed values; Assessment; Assessments; Atmospheric Sciences; Baltic Sea; Basins; Chlorophyll - toxicity; Classification; Coasts; Cost functions; Earth and Environmental Science; Ecological modeling; Ecological models; Ecological monitoring; Ecology; Ecosystem; Ecosystem models; Ecosystems; Environment; Environmental assessment; Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology; Environmental Management; Eutrophication; Gulfs; Harmful Algal Bloom; Humans; Hydrology; Marine; Mathematical models; Modeling; Modelling; Models, Theoretical; Nitrogen - toxicity; North Sea; Nutrients; Oceans and Seas; OSPAR CP; Oxygen; Parametric models; Phosphorus - toxicity; Physical Geography; Public Policy; Reference Values; REVIEW PAPER; Seas; Standard deviation; Thresholds; Water Pollution, Chemical - adverse effects; Water quality; Weighted averages; North Sea; ANE, North Sea; ANE, Baltic Sea, Bornholm Basin; ANE, North Sea, Kattegat; ANE, Denmark, Bornholm; ANE, Finland, Etelae-Suomi, Helsinki; ANE, Baltic Proper; ANE, Baltic Sea, Kattegat; France, Paris; ANE, Baltic Sea, Arkona Basin; ANE, Baltic Sea, Finland Gulf; ANE, Baltic Sea, Riga Gulf; Modelling; North Sea; Baltic Sea; Assessment; Eutrophication; OSPAR CP
• ISSN: 0044-7447; 1654-7209
• DOI: 10.1007/s13280-009-0006-7

A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models is suggested to produce a eutrophication assessment. Using threshold values and methodology from the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM), four models are combined to assess eutrophication for the Baltic and North Seas for the year 2006. The assessment indicates that the entire southeastern part of the North Sea, the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, and the Gulf of Riga as well as parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The Bothnian Bay and parts of the Baltic proper, the Bornholm Basin, and the Arkona Basin are classified as potential problem areas. This method is a useful tool for the classification of eutrophication; however, the results depend on the threshold values, and further work is needed within both OSPAR and HELCOM to harmonize these values.