Smallholder Farms as Stepping Stone Corridors for Crop-Raiding Elephant in Northern Tanzania: Integration of Bayesian Expert System and Network Simulator

• Published in: Ambio Vol. 43; no. 2; pp. 149 - 161
• Main Authors: Pittiglio, Claudia, Skidmore, Andrew K, van Gils, Hein A. M. J, McCall, Michael K, Prins, Herbert H. T
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer-Verlag 01.03.2014; Springer; Springer Netherlands; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: african elephants; Agricultural land; Agriculture; Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions; Animal behavior; Animal populations; Animals; Atmospheric Sciences; Bayesian analysis; Behavior, Animal; Biological and medical sciences; conflict; conservation; Crop damage; Crop density; Crop science; Crops; Crops, Agricultural; Earth and Environmental Science; Ecology; Ecosystem; Elephantidae; Elephants; Elephants - psychology; Environment; Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology; Environmental Management; Environmental protection; Expert systems; Farms; Food crops; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General agroecology; General agroecology. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development. Rural area planning. Landscaping; General agronomy. Plant production; Generalities. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development; Habitat corridors; habitats; household surveys; Hypotheses; land-use; landscape; livelihood; management; Multiple cropping; National parks; national-park; patterns; Physical Geography; Population; Resistance movements; River beds; River ecology; Riverbeds; Rivers; Small farms; stream channels; Tanzania; tarangire-manyara ecosystem; trails; Vegetation; wildlife; Wildlife conservation; Tanzania; East Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Movement behavior; Human–elephant conflict; Crop damage control; Farms; Bayesian expert system; Ecological corridors; Human; Integration; Tropical zone; Expert system; Ecology; Agroecosystem; Conservation corridor; Conflict; Human―elephant conflict; Behavior; Small farms; Damage; Farming
• ISSN: 0044-7447; 1654-7209
• DOI: 10.1007/s13280-013-0437-z

Crop-raiding elephants affect local livelihoods, undermining conservation efforts. Yet, crop-raiding patterns are poorly understood, making prediction and protection difficult. We hypothesized that raiding elephants use corridors between daytime refuges and farmland. Elephant counts, crop-raiding records, household surveys, Bayesian expert system, and least-cost path simulation were used to predict four alternative categories of daily corridors: (1) footpaths, (2) dry river beds, (3) stepping stones along scattered small farms, and (4) trajectories of shortest distance to refuges. The corridor alignments were compared in terms of their minimum cumulative resistance to elephant movement and related to crop-raiding zones quantified by a kernel density function. The “stepping stone” corridors predicted the crop-raiding patterns. Elephant presence was confirmed along these corridors, demonstrating that small farms located between refuges and contiguous farmland increase habitat connectivity for elephant. Our analysis successfully predicted elephant occurrence in farmland where daytime counts failed to detect nocturnal presence. These results have conservation management implications.