Energetic Limits to Economic Growth

• Published in: Bioscience Vol. 61; no. 1; pp. 19 - 26
• Main Authors: Brown, James H, Burnside, William R, Davidson, Ana D, Delong, John R, Dunn, William C, Hamilton, Marcus J, Mercado-Silva, Norman, Nekola, Jeffrey C, Okie, Jordan G, Woodruff, William H, Zuo, Wenyun
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford University of California Press 01.01.2011; American Institute of Biological Sciences; Oxford University Press
• Subjects: Alternative energy sources; Confidence intervals; Developing countries; Ecological economics; Ecologists; Ecology; Economic activity; Economic aspects; Economic growth; Economic Progress; Economic trends; Economics; economy; Ecosystems; energy; Energy consumption; Energy economics; Energy resources; Environmental aspects; GDP; Gross Domestic Product; human macroecology; Human populations; Humans and nature; LDCs; Living Standards; Metabolism; OVERVIEW ARTICLES; Per capita; Population ecology; Population growth; Poverty; Regression (Statistics); scaling; Socioeconomics; Standard of living; Thermodynamics; United States
• ISSN: 0006-3568; 1525-3244
• DOI: 10.1525/bio.2011.61.1.7

The human population and economy have grown exponentially and now have impacts on climate, ecosystem processes, and biodiversity far exceeding those of any other species. Like all organisms, humans are subject to natural laws and are limited by energy and other resources. In this article, we use a macro ecological approach to integrate perspectives of physics, ecology, and economics with an analysis of extensive global data to show how energy imposes fundamental constraints on economic growth and development. We demonstrate a positive scaling relationship between per capita energy use and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) both across nations and within nations over time. Other indicators of socioeconomic status and ecological impactare correlated with energy use and GDP. We estimate global energy consumption for alternative future scenarios of population growth and standards of living. Large amounts of energy will be required to fuel economic growth, increase standards of living, and lift developing nations out of poverty.