Forecasting malaria incidence based on monthly case reports and environmental factors in Karuzi, Burundi, 1997-2003

• Published in: Malaria journal Vol. 6; no. 1; p. 129
• Main Authors: Gomez-Elipe, Alberto, Otero, Angel, van Herp, Michel, Aguirre-Jaime, Armando
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England BioMed Central Ltd 24.09.2007; BioMed Central; BMC
• Subjects: Animals; Anopheles - growth & development; Anopheles - parasitology; Arthropod Vectors - growth & development; Arthropod Vectors - parasitology; Burundi - epidemiology; Disease Outbreaks; Diseases; Environmental aspects; Epidemiologic Methods; Forecasting; Forecasts and trends; Geography; Humans; Incidence; Malaria; Malaria, Falciparum - epidemiology; Malaria, Falciparum - parasitology; Malaria, Falciparum - transmission; Models, Statistical; Plants; Plasmodium falciparum; Rain; Reporting; Statistics; Temperature; Burundi
• ISSN: 1475-2875; 1475-2875
• DOI: 10.1186/1475-2875-6-129

The objective of this work was to develop a model to predict malaria incidence in an area of unstable transmission by studying the association between environmental variables and disease dynamics. The study was carried out in Karuzi, a province in the Burundi highlands, using time series of monthly notifications of malaria cases from local health facilities, data from rain and temperature records, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology, a model showing the relation between monthly notifications of malaria cases and the environmental variables was developed. The best forecasting model (R2adj = 82%, p < 0.0001 and 93% forecasting accuracy in the range +/- 4 cases per 100 inhabitants) included the NDVI, mean maximum temperature, rainfall and number of malaria cases in the preceding month. This model is a simple and useful tool for producing reasonably reliable forecasts of the malaria incidence rate in the study area.