Predicting adult metabolic syndrome from childhood body mass index: follow-up of the New Delhi birth cohort
Objectives:To assess whether serial measurements of childhood body mass index (BMI) give clinically useful predictions of the risk of developing adult metabolic syndrome and impaired glucose tolerance or type 2 diabetes.Design/setting:Follow-up of a community-based birth cohort in Delhi, India.Parti...
Saved in:
Published in | Archives of disease in childhood Vol. 94; no. 10; pp. 768 - 774 |
---|---|
Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
London
BMJ Publishing Group Ltd and Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health
01.10.2009
BMJ Publishing Group BMJ Publishing Group Ltd BMJ Publishing Group LTD |
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
Cover
Loading…
Summary: | Objectives:To assess whether serial measurements of childhood body mass index (BMI) give clinically useful predictions of the risk of developing adult metabolic syndrome and impaired glucose tolerance or type 2 diabetes.Design/setting:Follow-up of a community-based birth cohort in Delhi, India.Participants:1492 men and women aged 26–32 years whose BMI was recorded 6-monthly throughout childhood.Main outcome measures:The predictive value of childhood BMI for adult metabolic syndrome and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and diabetes mellitus.Results:25% of subjects had metabolic syndrome and 15% had IGT/diabetes mellitus. Both outcomes were associated with greater childhood BMI gain (metabolic syndrome: OR 1.63 (95% CI 1.44 to 1.85); IGT/diabetes mellitus: 1.39 (1.20 to 1.60) per unit increase in within-cohort BMI SD score between 5 and 14 years). The best predictions of adult disease were obtained using a combined test comprising (i) any increase in BMI SD score between 5 and 14 years and (ii) a BMI SD score >0 at 14 years (metabolic syndrome: sensitivity 45%, specificity 78%; IGT/diabetes mellitus: 37%, 73%). Likelihood ratios were low (metabolic syndrome: 1.4–2.0; IGT/diabetes mellitus: 1.2–1.4). A single high BMI measurement at 14 years (overweight or obese, according to International Obesity Task Force criteria) was highly specific but insensitive (metabolic syndrome: sensitivity 7%, specificity 97%; IGT/diabetes mellitus: 8%, 97%). Charts for plotting BMI SD scores through childhood were produced.Conclusions:Serial measurements of childhood BMI give useful predictions of adult risk and could guide advice to children and parents on preventing later disease. |
---|---|
Bibliography: | local:archdischild;94/10/768 ark:/67375/NVC-N1FC7N1C-Z PMID:19015213 href:archdischild-94-768.pdf ArticleID:ac140905 istex:B16C7B207AE97085F676700F117703B735DCD0AB ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 |
ISSN: | 0003-9888 1468-2044 |
DOI: | 10.1136/adc.2008.140905 |