Analysis of deaths while waiting for cardiac surgery among 29 293 consecutive patients in Ontario, Canada
Objectives To assess death rates among patients waiting for cardiac valve surgery or isolated coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG), and to determine independent risk factors for death while waiting for isolated CABG. Design Prospective cohort analysis based on an inclusive registry. Setting Nine ca...
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Published in | Heart (British Cardiac Society) Vol. 79; no. 4; pp. 345 - 349 |
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Main Authors | , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
London
BMJ Publishing Group Ltd and British Cardiovascular Society
01.04.1998
BMJ BMJ Publishing Group LTD |
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | Objectives To assess death rates among patients waiting for cardiac valve surgery or isolated coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG), and to determine independent risk factors for death while waiting for isolated CABG. Design Prospective cohort analysis based on an inclusive registry. Setting Nine cardiac surgical units in Ontario, Canada. Patients 29 293 consecutive patients scheduled for cardiac surgery between October 1991 and June 1995. Main outcome measures Death rates while waiting for surgery were determined among patients scheduled for isolated CABG, isolated valve surgery, or combined procedures. Predictors of death among patients with isolated CABG were determined from multivariate analysis. Results There were 141 deaths (0.48%) among 29 293 patients. Adjusting for age, sex, and waiting time, patients waiting for valve surgery had a significantly increased risk of death compared with patients waiting for CABG alone (adjusted odds ratio 1.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23 to 2.88, p = 0.004). Results were similar for patients waiting for combined valve and CABG procedures compared with those who were waiting for isolated CABG. Independent risk factors for death while waiting for isolated CABG included: impaired left ventricular function (odds ratio 2.47, 95% CI 1.59 to 3.84, p < 0.001); advancing age (for each decade, odds ratio 1.41, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.80, p = 0.007); male sex (odds ratio 1.95, 95% CI 1.00 to 3.81, p = 0.05); and waiting longer than the maximum time recommended in Canadian guidelines for a patient’s clinical profile (odds ratio 1.59, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.51, p = 0.044). After scaling waiting time to surgery or death continuously in days, the same predictors emerged. Conclusions Patients waiting for valve surgery have a higher risk of death than patients waiting for isolated CABG. Guidelines to promote safer and fairer queuing for non-CABG cardiac surgery are needed. Shorter waiting lists, better compliance with existing guidelines, and guideline revisions to upgrade patients with left ventricular dysfunction could generate additional reductions in the already low risk of death for patients waiting for isolated CABG. |
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Bibliography: | istex:0A89B596B7B2D4DF9DF0B7713AA51D9813F0C282 local:heartjnl;79/4/345 ark:/67375/NVC-K6H5Q1X2-D PMID:9616340 Dr C D Morgan, E203, Sunnybrook Health Science Centre, 2075 Bayview Avenue, North York, Ontario, Canada M4N 3M5. Reprint requests to: Dr C D Naylor, G106, Sunnybrook Health Science Centre, 2075 Bayview Avenue, North York, Ontario, Canada M4N 3M5. href:heartjnl-79-345.pdf |
ISSN: | 1355-6037 1468-201X |
DOI: | 10.1136/hrt.79.4.345 |