Long-range Ising model for regional-scale seismic risk analysis
This study introduces the long-range Ising model from statistical mechanics to the Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework for regional seismic damage analysis. The application of the PBEE framework at a regional scale involves estimating the damage states of numerous structures, t...
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Main Authors | , , |
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Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
17.03.2024
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Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | This study introduces the long-range Ising model from statistical mechanics
to the Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework for regional
seismic damage analysis. The application of the PBEE framework at a regional
scale involves estimating the damage states of numerous structures, typically
performed using fragility function-based stochastic simulations. However, these
simulations often assume conditional independence or employ simplistic
dependency models among the damage states of structures, leading to significant
misrepresentation of regional risk. The Ising model addresses this issue by
converting the available information on binary damage states (safe or failure)
into a joint probability mass function, leveraging the principle of maximum
entropy. The Ising model offers two main benefits: (1) it requires only the
first- and second-order cross-moments, enabling seamless integration with the
existing PBEE framework, and (2) it provides meaningful physical
interpretations of the model parameters, facilitating the uncovering of
insights not apparent from data. To demonstrate the proposed method, we applied
the Ising model to 156 buildings in Antakya, Turkey, using post-hazard damage
evaluation data, and to 182 buildings in Pacific Heights, San Francisco, using
simulated data from the Regional Resilience Determination (R2D) tool. In both
instances, the Ising model accurately reproduces the provided information and
generates meaningful insights into regional damage. The study also investigates
the change in Ising model parameters under varying earthquake magnitudes, along
with the mean-field approximation, further facilitating the applicability of
the proposed approach. |
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DOI: | 10.48550/arxiv.2403.11429 |