Data-driven modelling and validation of aircraft inbound-stream at some major European airports

This paper presents an exhaustive study on the arrivals process at eight important European airports. Using inbound traffic data, we define, compare, and contrast a data-driven Poisson and PSRA point process. Although, there is sufficient evidence that the interarrivals might follow an exponential d...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors Lancia, Carlo, Lulli, Guglielmo
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published 08.08.2017
Subjects
Statistics - Applications
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Summary:This paper presents an exhaustive study on the arrivals process at eight important European airports. Using inbound traffic data, we define, compare, and contrast a data-driven Poisson and PSRA point process. Although, there is sufficient evidence that the interarrivals might follow an exponential distribution, this finding does not directly translate to evidence that the arrivals stream is Poisson. The main reason is that finite-capacity constraints impose a correlation structure to the arrivals stream, which a Poisson model cannot capture. We show the weaknesses and somehow the difficulties of using a Poisson process to model with good approximation the arrivals stream. On the other hand, our innovative non-parametric, data-driven PSRA model, predicts quite well and captures important properties of the typical arrivals stream.
DOI:10.48550/arxiv.1708.02486