Morphology and numerical characteristics of epidemic curves for SARS-Cov-II using Moyal distribution
In this paper, it is shown that the Moyal distribution is an excelent tool to study the SARS-Cov-II (Covid-19) epidemiological associated curves and its propagation. The Moyal parameters give all the information to describe the form and the impact of the illness outbreak in the different affected co...
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Main Authors | , |
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Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
08.06.2020
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Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | In this paper, it is shown that the Moyal distribution is an excelent tool to
study the SARS-Cov-II (Covid-19) epidemiological associated curves and its
propagation. The Moyal parameters give all the information to describe the form
and the impact of the illness outbreak in the different affected countries and
its global impact. We checked that the Moyal distribution can accurately fit
the daily report of {\it{new confirmed cases of infected people}} (NCC) per
country, in that places where the contagion is reaching their final phase,
describing the beginning, the most intense phase and the descend of the
contagion, simultaneously . In order to achieve the purpose of this work, it is
important to work with a complete and well compilated set of the data to be
used to fit the curves. Data from European countries like France, Spain, Italy
Belgium, Sweden, United Kingdom, Denmark and others like USA and China, have
been used. Also, the correlation between the parameters of the Moyal
distribution fitting and the general public health measures imposed in each
country, have been discussed. A relation between those policies and the
features of the Moyal distribution, in terms of their parameters and critical
points, is shown; from that, it can be seen that the knowledge of the time
evolution of the epidemiological curve, their critical points, superposition
properties and rates of the rising and the ending, could help to find a way to
estimate the efficiency of social distancing measures, imposed in each country,
and anticipate the different phases of the pandemic. |
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DOI: | 10.48550/arxiv.2006.04954 |