Time Series of Magnetic Field Parameters of Merged MDI and HMI Space-Weather Active Region Patches as Potential Tool for Solar Flare Forecasting

• Main Authors: Kosovich, Paul A, Kosovichev, Alexander G, Sadykov, Viacheslav M, Kasapis, Spiridon, Kitiashvili, Irina N, O'Keefe, Patrick M, Ali, Aatiya, Oria, Vincent, Granovsky, Samuel, Chong, Chun Jie, Nita, Gelu M
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: 10.01.2024
• Subjects: Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability; Physics - Solar and Stellar Astrophysics; Statistics - Applications
• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2401.05591

Solar flare prediction studies have been recently conducted with the use of Space-Weather MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager onboard Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) Active Region Patches (SMARP) and Space-Weather HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard Solar Dynamics Observatory) Active Region Patches (SHARP), which are two currently available data products containing magnetic field characteristics of solar active regions. The present work is an effort to combine them into one data product, and perform some initial statistical analyses in order to further expand their application in space weather forecasting. The combined data are derived by filtering, rescaling, and merging the SMARP with SHARP parameters, which can then be spatially reduced to create uniform multivariate time series. The resulting combined MDI-HMI dataset currently spans the period between April 4, 1996, and December 13, 2022, and may be extended to a more recent date. This provides an opportunity to correlate and compare it with other space weather time series, such as the daily solar flare index or the statistical properties of the soft X-ray flux measured by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). Time-lagged cross-correlation indicates that a relationship may exist, where some magnetic field properties of active regions lead the flare index in time. Applying the rolling window technique makes it possible to see how this leader-follower dynamic varies with time. Preliminary results indicate that areas of high correlation generally correspond to increased flare activity during the peak solar cycle.