Heat, Health, and Habitats: Analyzing the Intersecting Risks of Climate and Demographic Shifts in Austrian Districts
The impact of hot weather on health outcomes of a population is mediated by a variety of factors, including its age profile and local green infrastructure. The combination of warming due to climate change and demographic aging suggests that heat-related health outcomes will deteriorate in the coming...
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Main Authors | , , , |
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Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
01.05.2024
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Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | The impact of hot weather on health outcomes of a population is mediated by a
variety of factors, including its age profile and local green infrastructure.
The combination of warming due to climate change and demographic aging suggests
that heat-related health outcomes will deteriorate in the coming decades. Here,
we measure the relationship between weekly all-cause mortality and heat days in
Austrian districts using a panel dataset covering $2015-2022$. An additional
day reaching $30$ degrees is associated with a $2.4\%$ increase in mortality
per $1000$ inhabitants during summer. This association is roughly doubled in
districts with a two standard deviation above average share of the population
over $65$. Using forecasts of hot days (RCP) and demographics in $2050$, we
observe that districts will have elderly populations and hot days $2-5$
standard deviations above the current mean in just $25$ years. This predicts a
drastic increase in heat-related mortality. At the same time, district green
scores, measured using $10\times 10$ meter resolution satellite images of
residential areas, significantly moderate the relationship between heat and
mortality. Thus, although local policies likely cannot reverse warming or
demographic trends, they can take measures to mediate the health consequences
of these growing risks, which are highly heterogeneous across regions, even in
Austria. |
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DOI: | 10.48550/arxiv.2405.00540 |