The foreshadow of a second wave: An analysis of current COVID-19 fatalities in Germany
A second wave of SARS-CoV-2 is unfolding in dozens of countries. However, this second wave manifests itself strongly in new reported cases, but less in death counts compared to the first wave. Over the past three months in Germany, the reported cases increased by a factor five or more, whereas the d...
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , |
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Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
12.10.2020
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Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | A second wave of SARS-CoV-2 is unfolding in dozens of countries. However,
this second wave manifests itself strongly in new reported cases, but less in
death counts compared to the first wave. Over the past three months in Germany,
the reported cases increased by a factor five or more, whereas the death counts
hardly grew. This discrepancy fueled speculations that the rise of reported
cases would not reflect a second wave but only wider testing. We find that this
apparent discrepancy can be explained to a large extent by the age structure of
the infected, and predict a pronounced increase of death counts in the near
future, as the spread once again expands into older age groups. To re-establish
control, and to avoid the tipping point when TTI capacity is exceeded, case
numbers have to be lowered. Otherwise the control of the spread and the
protection of vulnerable people will require more restrictive measures latest
when the hospital capacity is reached. |
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DOI: | 10.48550/arxiv.2010.05850 |