A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon-climate feedback
We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify t...
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Published in | Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences Vol. 373; no. 2054; p. 20140423 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
England
The Royal Society Publishing
13.11.2015
Royal Society, The |
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2-33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9-112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of −14 to −19 Pg C °C−1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10-18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming. |
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Bibliography: | Discussion meeting issue ‘Feedbacks on climate in the Earth system’ organised and edited by Eric W. Wolff , John G. Shepherd, Emily Shuckburgh and Andrew J. Watson AC02-05CH11231; SC0006982; FC03-97ER62402/A010; ARC-1048997; ARC-1048987 USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) One contribution of 12 to a discussion meeting issue ‘Feedbacks on climate in the Earth system’. |
ISSN: | 1364-503X 1471-2962 1471-2962 |
DOI: | 10.1098/rsta.2014.0423 |