A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan

• Published in: Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences Vol. 368; no. 1931; pp. 5151 - 5172
• Main Authors: Wade, A. J., Black, E., Brayshaw, D. J., El-Bastawesy, M., Holmes, P. A. C., Butterfield, D., Nuimat, S., Jamjoum, K.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England The Royal Society Publishing 28.11.2010; The Royal Society
• Subjects: Climate Change; Climate models; Conservation of Natural Resources; Forecasting; Freshwater; Groundwater; Hydrological modeling; Hydrology; Incan culture; Jordan; Models, Theoretical; Precipitation; Rain; Rivers; Seasons; Wadis; Water Cycle - physiology; Water Movements; Water Resources; Water Supply; Weather; Jordan
• ISSN: 1364-503X; 1471-2962
• DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0207

This paper is concerned with the quantification of the likely effect of anthropogenic climate change on the water resources of Jordan by the end of the twenty-first century. Specifically, a suite of hydrological models are used in conjunction with modelled outcomes from a regional climate model, HadRM3, and a weather generator to determine how future flows in the upper River Jordan and in the Wadi Faynan may change. The results indicate that groundwater will play an important role in the water security of the country as irrigation demands increase. Given future projections of reduced winter rainfall and increased near-surface air temperatures, the already low groundwater recharge will decrease further. Interestingly, the modelled discharge at the Wadi Faynan indicates that extreme flood flows will increase in magnitude, despite a decrease in the mean annual rainfall. Simulations projected no increase in flood magnitude in the upper River Jordan. Discussion focuses on the utility of the modelling framework, the problems of making quantitative forecasts and the implications of reduced water availability in Jordan.