Statistical investigation of reservoir-induced seismicity in Aswan area, Egypt

• Published in: Earth, planets, and space Vol. 54; no. 4; pp. 349 - 356
• Main Authors: MAHMOUD MOHAMED SELIM, IMOTO, Masajiro, HURUKAWA, Nobuo
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Tokyo Terra 01.01.2002; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Applied geophysics; Correlation coefficient; Correlation coefficients; Cross correlation; Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; Hydrology; Hydrology. Hydrogeology; Internal geophysics; Reservoirs; Seismic activity; Seismicity; Seismology; Statistical methods; Time lag; Water level fluctuations; Water levels; North Africa; Egypt; Aswan Egypt; artificial reservoirs; fluctuations; Africa; ground water; water table; reservoirs; magnitude; induced earthquakes; dams; correlation coefficient; seismicity; statistics
• ISSN: 1343-8832; 1880-5981; 1880-5981
• DOI: 10.1186/BF03352424

The purpose of this study is to understand the effect of the fluctuation of the water level in Lake Nasser on the seismicity in the Aswan area, Egypt. Two statistical methods have been applied using the sequence of seismic events between 1982–1998 with local magnitude m ≥ 2.0, recorded by the Aswan Regional Seismological Center in Egypt. Firstly, a cross-correlation method is adopted to find the relationship between the water level and the seismicity. A maximum correlation coefficient of +0.55 was obtained for the period (1982–1985) at a 60 days time lag. However, coefficients are very small for other periods. Secondly, a point-process procedure is applied to the seismicity for the period (1992–1998), where a hazard function includes a term presenting reservoir-induced seismicity. This analysis confirms a weak relation between the fluctuation of the water level and the seismicity in the area. The result suggests that the seismicity in the area becomes active during a period when the water level is decreasing from the maximum to the minimum.