An Illusion of Control Modulates the Reluctance to Tempt Fate

• Published in: Judgment and Decision Making Vol. 6; no. 7; pp. 688 - 696
• Main Authors: Fernbach, Philip M, Swirsky, Chloe L, Sloman, Steven A
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Tallahassee Society for Judgment and Decision Making 01.10.2011; Society for Judgment & Decision Making; Cambridge University Press
• Series: Judgment and Decision Making
• Subjects: causal reasoning; Decision making; Hypotheses; illusion of control; tempting fate; tempting fate; illusion of control; causal reasoning
• ISSN: 1930-2975; 1930-2975
• DOI: 10.1017/S1930297500002692

The tempting fate effect is that the probability of a fateful outcome is deemed higher following an action that ``tempts'' the outcome than in the absence of such an action. In this paper we evaluate the hypothesis that the effect is due to an illusion of control induced by a causal framing of the situation. Causal frames require that the action make a difference to an outcome and that the action precedes the outcome. If an illusion of control modulates the reluctance to tempt fate, then actions that make a difference to well-being and that occur prior to the outcome should tempt fate most strongly. In Experiments 1--3 we varied whether the action makes a difference and the temporal order of action and outcome. In Experiment 4 we tested whether an action can tempt fate if all outcomes are negative. The results of all four experiments supported our hypothesis that the tempting fate effect depends on a causal construal that gives rise to a false sense of control.