Estimated return periods for Hurricane Katrina

• Published in: Geophysical research letters Vol. 33; no. 8; pp. L08704 - n/a
• Main Authors: Elsner, J. B., Jagger, T. H., Tsonis, A. A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington, DC American Geophysical Union 01.04.2006; Blackwell Publishing Ltd
• Subjects: Atmospheric Processes; Biogeosciences; Climate change and variability; Climate dynamics; Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Exact sciences and technology; Global Change; Impacts of global change; Marine; Nonlinear Geophysics; Probability distributions, heavy and fat-tailed; Tropical meteorology; Alabama; United States; Maine; Texas; ASW, USA, Alabama; ASW, USA, Texas; ANW, USA, Maine; ANW, USA, East Coast; ASW, USA, Gulf Coast; intensity; models; hurricanes; Return period; extreme value; Tropical cyclone; probability; warming; natural disasters; North America; trajectory
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1029/2005GL025452

Hurricane Katrina is one of the most destructive natural disaster in U.S. history. The infrequency of severe coastal hurricanes implies that empirical probability estimates of the next big one will be unreliable. Here we use an extreme‐value model together with interpolated best‐track (HURDAT) records to show that a hurricane of Katrina's intensity or stronger can be expected to occur, on average, once every 21 years somewhere along the Gulf coast from Texas through Alabama and once every 14 years somewhere along the entire coast from Texas through Maine. The model predicts a 100‐year return level of 83 ms−1 (186 mph) during globally warm years and 75 ms−1 (168 mph) during globally cool years. This difference is consistent with models predicting an increase in hurricane intensity with increasing greenhouse warming.